What Does Work Look Like in 2030? 4 Predictions from Nick Bloom

Flex Index

Nick Bloom is a Professor at Stanford University and one of the foremost thinkers on the future of work. Nick joined the Flex Perspectives podcast to share his predictions on everything from the prevalence of remote work to where certain types of jobs might be located globally.

In this blog, we’ll highlight four of Nick’s predictions, including:

1. Which flexible work model will dominate in 2030
2. The impact of technology on remote work
3. The biggest risks to growth of Fully Remote work
4. The future of commercial real estate

These insights shed light on the rapidly changing landscape of work and how impactful flexible work will be on so many parts of the global economy.

Prediction #1: Hybrid work will dominate

Nick Bloom predicts that by 2030, the hybrid work model will emerge as the dominant approach to work location. This model combines the advantages of remote work and in-person collaboration, offering a flexible and efficient solution for both employees and employers.
The establishment of team norms on flexibility will lead to predictability in work locations for both employers and employees. Nick puts it as “if you're on a schedule where employees are coming in three days a week, but you tell them you choose, 70-80% of employees are going to choose Tuesday to Thursday.”

The hybrid work model allows individuals to strike a balance between their personal lives and professional commitments. The ability to work remotely, coupled with periodic in-person collaboration, empowers employees to customize their work environments and schedules, promoting greater work-life integration.

Nick also highlights the efficiency gains achieved through reduced commute time and increased productivity during focused remote work periods. Reduced commute time further enables organizations to broaden talent pools geographically.

Prediction #2: Remote work will benefit from improving technology

According to Nick Bloom's predictions, technological advancements in the coming years will play a pivotal role in enhancing the remote work experience. As we progress towards 2030, we can anticipate the emergence of innovative tools and platforms that will bridge the gap between virtual and in-person collaboration. These advancements will enable employees to seamlessly transition between remote and on-site work, fostering a hybrid work model where flexibility and productivity go hand in hand.

The advancements in technology will address some of the key challenges associated with remote work, such as communication barriers and limited access to resources. Virtual meeting platforms will become more sophisticated, offering immersive and interactive experiences that mimic face-to-face interactions. Cloud-based productivity tools will continue to evolve, providing seamless access to files, data, and collaborative workspaces, regardless of the physical location. Furthermore, advancements in artificial intelligence and automation will streamline repetitive tasks, allowing employees to focus on higher-value work.

These technological advancements not only will enhance the remote work experience, but also enable organizations to embrace hybrid work models more effectively. The seamless integration of virtual and physical work environments will empower employees to choose the most suitable work location based on their tasks, preferences, and personal circumstances. This flexibility will lead to a more balanced work-life integration and improved job satisfaction, ultimately driving the adoption of the hybrid work model as the preferred approach for organizations across various industries.

Prediction #3: Fully Remote work faces threats from offshoring and AI

While technology to enable remote work will improve, the Fully Remote work model faces steep potential threats from offshoring and AI.

Offshoring is when companies shift work to lower-cost locations outside of a company’s home country to generate cost savings and broaden their access to talent. When it comes to Fully Remote work, Nick Bloom describes a growing contingent of executives that say “look, if someone can be working Fully Remote, we may just move [that role] to Mexico or Columbia” where there is a clear salary differential but an employee can still work on the same time zone.

Nick believes that the jobs that are easiest to execute fully remotely are also the jobs that are most easily moved offshore. This might motivate employees who would otherwise prefer Fully Remote work to be more amenable to hybrid work.

When it comes to AI, Nick sees the sames jobs that are most easily offshored as the ones that might be most impacted by artificial intelligence. As AI continues to advance, there is the potential for certain tasks and functions traditionally performed by Fully Remote workers to be automated. As AI systems become more sophisticated and capable of handling complex tasks, the demand for human intervention in remote work may diminish. This poses a significant risk to individuals whose work primarily relies on tasks that can be automated.

Prediction #4: Remote work will have a transformative effect on the commercial real estate market

Nick Bloom predicts that the growing prevalence of hybrid work will have a profound impact on the commercial real estate market. With an increasing number of employees embracing work from home at least a portion of the time, the demand for traditional office spaces will undergo a significant shock.

Nick points out that “about 10-15% of corporate employees have gone Fully Remote.” Out of the remainder, the majority of “pre-pandemic offices are probably now hybrid . . . that’s partly why office demand is down.” The need for large office spaces also may decrease as companies adopt hybrid work policies, leading to a potential shift in how commercial real estate is utilized and repurposed.

The shift towards remote work presents both challenges and opportunities for the commercial real estate sector. On one hand, there may be a decreased demand for traditional office spaces as remote work allows companies to reduce their physical footprint and operating costs. This could result in a surplus of office space in certain areas.

On the other hand, creative commercial real estate developers may be able to take advantage of market surplus to convert traditional office space into mixed-use spaces, coworking hubs, or flexible work environments. As companies transition to hybrid work models, there may be demand for more flexible and collaborative workspaces that facilitate in-person interactions when needed. This could lead to the emergence of new types of commercial real estate offerings, such as shared workspaces, satellite offices, or meeting spaces designed to accommodate remote and distributed teams. Commercial real estate developers that are ahead of this trend may find a growing market to meet the evolving needs of businesses in a remote work environment.

Conclusion

Nick Bloom’s predictions provide a valuable window into the future of work in 2030. The hybrid work model is expected to dominate as it offers flexibility, efficiency, and a balance between personal and professional commitments. Advancements in technology will significantly improve the remote work experience, facilitating seamless transitions between virtual and physical collaboration and enabling the hybrid work model to become the preeminent approach.

The Fully Remote work model may face challenges, in particular from offshoring and AI, as access to global talent grows and AI becomes more capable of automating tasks. Regardless of the balance of Fully Remote work vs. hybrid, commercial real estate is on the precipice of major transformation as demand decreases for traditional office space and demand grows for spaces redesigned for the new way of working.

As we look ahead to the future of work, it is essential for individuals, organizations, and industries to prepare for the changes that lie ahead. The predictions provided by Nick Bloom shed light on the opportunities and challenges associated with remote and hybrid work, inviting us to explore new ways of working, collaborating, and leveraging technology to drive productivity and job satisfaction. By staying informed and adaptable, we can shape a future of work that aligns with our evolving needs and aspirations.